Manish Patel oo ka tirsan SIPM waxa uu soo bandhigay xaalad murugo leh oo ku saabsan kacdoonka ka jira suuqyada caalamiga ah ee fiber-ka, sanduuqa weelka iyo jiingadaha inta lagu guda jiro Shirweynaha ICCMA ee 4tii Oktoobar.Wuxuu muujiyay sida riixitaanka Shiinaha ee nadiifinta deegaankiisa uu saameyn ugu yeelan doono Hindiya

Manish Patel oo ka tirsan SIPM intii uu ku guda jiray soo jeedintiisa ICCMA (Ururka Soosaarayaasha Kiiska Hindida ee Hindiya) Congress wuxuu sheegay inay ahayd daqiiqad Swan Black Swan warshadaha weelasha ee Hindiya.Sababta: saamayn weyn bay ku yeelatay oo xaaladdii hore waxay isu rogtay gudaha iyo hoosba.Raison d aitre: Shiinuhu si gardarro ah oo uu u riixayo in uu nadiifiyo ficillada iyo canshuuraha aargoosiga ah.

Hogaamiyaasha sanduuqa jiingada ee ugu sarreeya oo uu ku jiro Kirit Modi, madaxweynaha ICCMA wuxuu sheegay in jahwareerka suuqa ee hadda jira uu yahay mid gaar ah.Markan waxa sababay isu dheelitir la'aanta saadka iyo dalabaadka oo ka dhashay go'aanka dawladda Shiinaha ee ah in la dejiyo tilmaamo loogu talagalay dib-u-warshadaynta dibedda laga keeno.Tilmaamahan cusub, oo leh xadka 0.5% wasakhaysan, ayaa caqabad ku ahaa Maraykanka, Kanadiyaanka iyo Yurub warqadaha isku dhafan iyo dib-u-warshadaynta balaastikada isku dhafan.Laakin si werwer leh, waxay mugdi iyo hoog ku gelisay warshadaha Hindiya.

Haddaba, maxaa dhacay?

31kii Diseembar 2017, Shiinuhu wuxuu joojiyay in badan oo qashinka caagga ah - sida dhalooyinka soodhaha ah ee hal mar la isticmaalo, bacaha cuntada, iyo bacaha - kuwaas oo loo dhoofin jiray xeebaheeda si loo tuuro.
Xukunka ka hor, Shiinuhu wuxuu ahaa dalka ugu wayn ee soo dhoofsada qashinka.Maalintii ugu horeysay ee sanadkan 2018, waxay joojisay qaadashada caagagga dib loo warshadeeyay iyo warqadaha iskaraabka ah ee aan la kala soocin ee dibadda, waxayna si adag u xakameysay soo dejinta kartoonada.Qadarka walxaha la helay ee Ameerika, oo ah dhoofiyaha ugu weyn adduunka ee qashinka, u diray Shiinaha waxay ahayd 3 metric tonnes (MT) in ka yar qeybtii hore ee 2018 sanad ka hor, hoos u dhac 38%.

Marka la eego dhab ahaan, tani waxay xisaabinaysaa soo dejinta USD 24bn ee qashinka ah.Oo lagu daray waraaqo isku dhafan iyo polymers ayaa hadda ku dhibtoonaya dib-u-warshadaynta dhirta adduunka Galbeedka.Marka la gaaro 2030, mamnuuciddu waxay ka tagi kartaa 111 milyan oo MT oo qashin caag ah oo aan meelna loo marin.
Intaas kuma koobna.Sababta oo ah, goobtu way dhumucaysaa.

Patel waxa uu tilmaamay in wax soo saarka Shiinaha ee waraaqaha iyo xaashida uu koray 120 milyan MT sannadkii 2015 halka uu ka ahaa 10 milyan metric tonne sannadkii 1990. Wax soo saarka Hindiya waa 13.5 milyan oo tan.Patel wuxuu yiri, waxaa jirtay 30% yaraan RCP (waraaqaha dib loo warshadeeyay iyo qashinka) ee konteenarka sababtoo ah xannibaado.Taasi waxay keentay laba shay.Mid ka mid ah, sicirka OCC ee gudaha (kaarboodhka jiingadaha ee duugga ah) iyo 12 milyan oo MT ah oo hoos u dhac ku ah guddiga Shiinaha.

Iyagoo la falgalaya wufuudda Shiinaha ka socota ee shirka iyo bandhigga ku xiga, waxay la hadleen WhatPackage?joornaalka tilmaamaha adag ee qarsoodiga ah.Wakiil ka socda Shanghai, ayaa yiri, "Dowladda Shiinaha aad ayay ugu adag tahay siyaasaddeeda 0.5% iyo hoos u dhigista wasakheynta."Haddaba maxaa ku dhacaya 5,000 oo shirkadood oo dib-u-warshadayneed oo leh 10 milyan oo qof oo ka shaqeeya warshadaha Shiinaha, jawaab-celinta guud waxay ahayd, "Faallooyinka ma jiro tan iyo warshaduhu waa jahawareer iyo qalafsanaan iyo jahwareer gudaha Shiinaha.Ma jiro xog iyo la'aanta qaab-dhismeed habboon - iyo baaxadda buuxda iyo natiijada ka dhalan karta siyaasadda soo dejinta qashinka ee wajiyada badan ee Shiinaha weli si buuxda looma fahmin."

Hal shay ayaa iska cad, ogolaanshaha soo dejinta ee Shiinaha ayaa la filayaa in la adkeeyo.Mid ka mid ah soosaarayaasha Shiinaha ayaa yiri, “Sanaadiiqda jiingadaha ayaa ka kooban kala bar warqadaha dib loo warshadeyn karo ee Shiinuhu soo dejiyo sababtoo ah fiilooyinka dhaadheer ee xooggan.Way ka nadiifsan yihiin warqadaha isku dhafan, gaar ahaan sanduuqyada jiingadaha ee xisaabaadka ganacsiga."Waxaa jira hubanti la'aan ku saabsan hababka kormeerka ee dhibaatada ka keenaya dhul weynaha Shiinaha.Sidaas darteed, dib-u-warshadaynta waraaqaha ayaa ka caga jiida in ay soo raraan boodhadhka OCC ilaa ay ogaadaan in kormeerayaashu ay noqon doonaan kuwo joogto ah oo la saadaalin karo.

Suuqyada Hindiya waxay wajihi doonaan qas 12-ka bilood ee soo socda.Sida Patel tilmaamay, sifo gaar ah oo ka mid ah wareegga RCP ee Shiinaha ayaa si xooggan u saameeya dhoofinta.Waxa uu yidhi, 20% GDP-ga Shiinaha waxa kor u qaada dhoofinta iyo “maadaama dhoofinta badeecadaha ee Shiinaha ay tahay hindise baakad taageerayo waxa jirta baahi xooggan oo loo qabo konteenarada.

Patel wuxuu yiri, "Suuqa Shiinaha ee darajooyinka hoose ee weelasha (sidoo kale loo yaqaan warqad kraft gudaha Hindiya) waa mid aad u soo jiidasho leh marka loo eego qiimaha Hindida, Bariga Dhexe iyo Koonfur Bari Aasiya soosaarayaasha waraaqaha.Dhoofinta Shiinaha iyo meelaha kale ee Bariga Dhexe, Koonfurta Aasiya iyo Afrika ee Hindiya iyo kuwa kale ee gobolka ma aha oo kaliya inay nuugaan awoodda xad-dhaafka ah ee suuqyada gudaha laakiin waxay abuuraysaa yaraan.Tani waxay kor u qaadaysaa kharashaadka dhammaan soosaarayaasha sanduuqyada jiingadaha ee gobolka oo ay ku jiraan kuwa Hindiya.

Waxa uu sharaxay sida waraaqaha waraaqaha ee Koonfur Bari Aasiya, Hindiya iyo Bariga Dhexe ay isku dayayaan inay buuxiyaan farqigan.Waxa uu yidhi, "Yaab yaraanta Shiinaha ee ku saabsan 12-13 milyan MT / sannadkii) ayaa aad uga miisaan badan awoodaha caalamiga ah ee xad-dhaafka ah.Oo sidaas daraaddeed, sidee ayay soo saarayaasha waaweyn ee Shiinaha uga jawaabi doonaan ilaha fiber-ka ee warshadahooda Shiinaha?Dib-u-warshadaynta Maraykanku ma awoodi doonaan inay nadiifiyaan qashinka baakadaha?Waraaqaha Hindida ma u wareejin doonaan dareenkooda (iyo faa'iidada faa'iidada) ee Shiinaha halkii ay ka ahaan lahaayeen suuqa maxaliga ah?

Q&A kadib bandhigyadii Patel ayaa cadeeyay, in saadaasha ay tahay wax aan waxba tarayn.Laakiin tani waxay u egtahay qalalaasihii ugu xumaa tobankii sano ee la soo dhaafay.
Iyadoo baahida la filayo in la kordhiyo si loo buuxiyo baahiyaha ganacsiga e-commerce ee maalmaha wax iibsiga ee internetka iyo xilliga fasaxa Diwali ee caadiga ah, bilaha soo socda waxay u muuqdaan kuwo adag.Hindiya wax ma ka baratay dhacdadan u dambaysay, mise sida had iyo jeer, waynu quusan doonaa, oo neefta waynu hayn doonaa ilaa tan xigta dhacdo?Mise waxaan isku dayi doonaa inaan xal u helno?